Adjusting to a Hotter Future: How Rising Temperatures Are Changing Jobs and the Economy in the Arab World
Rising temperatures in the Arab world are changing how people work. This region, known for its deserts and extreme weather, is struggling more with the effects of global warming. Heat stress—when the body takes in more heat than it can handle—is becoming a major problem.
In 2020, 83.6% of workers in the region faced extreme heat, which is higher than the global average of 71%, according to a report by the International Labor Organization (ILO). The report also said that the Arab region, along with Africa, has the most heat-related work injuries during heatwaves, with 1.7% of workers affected.
Heat Stress Impact
Ralf Wiegert, Director of MENA Economics at S&P Global, told Forbes Middle East that rising temperatures will likely reduce productivity in agriculture. This is because higher heat and less water will shrink the amount of land suitable for farming.
Outdoor workers, like those in farming and construction, feel the effects of heat the most since they work directly under the sun. A 2019 report by the ILO predicts that by 2030, Arab countries could lose about 1.1% of their GDP due to extreme heat.
Agriculture in the Arab world is already declining. By 2030, only 7.4 million people—about 12% of the workforce—are expected to work in this sector. However, those who stay in farming will be more affected by heat, which reduces both their ability to work and crop production.
In contrast, construction workers in countries like Qatar and the UAE might handle the heat better, Wiegert says. Since they can work at night or early in the morning to avoid the hottest hours, rising temperatures may not affect their productivity as much. By 2030, about 8.6 million people—14% of the workforce—are expected to be employed in the construction sector in the Arab world.
Economic Effects of Rising Temperatures
By 2030, rising temperatures will cause heat stress, reducing global working hours by over 2%.
Diana Francis, an Earth Sciences expert at Khalifa University in the UAE, told Forbes Middle East that the region could experience a temperature increase of 5°C every decade between 2070 and 2100. This rise is faster than the global average, giving the region less time to prepare for the impacts on the economy, natural resources, public health, and infrastructure.
Some countries will be hit harder than others. Qatar is expected to lose 3.2% of its GDP by 2030 due to heat stress, making it the most affected in the Arab world. Bahrain and the UAE are also likely to lose more than 2% of their GDP. Meanwhile, Oman will only see a small impact, with an estimated loss of 0.2% of its GDP by 2030.
Adjusting to a Hotter Future
Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have made new rules to protect workers from extreme heat.
- Saudi Arabia: From mid-June to mid-September, workers in the private sector cannot work outdoors between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m.. The government also gives tips on handling heat, like taking breaks, drinking water, and tracking heat levels with the Heat Index. Employers must provide water, devices to measure heat, and flexible work hours.
- Qatar: Outdoor work is banned between 10 a.m. and 3:30 p.m. during summer. If the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), which measures heat and humidity, goes over 32.1°C, all outdoor work must stop, no matter the time of year.
- UAE: For the 20th year, the UAE has banned outdoor work from 12:30 p.m. to 3 p.m. during summer to prevent heat-related illnesses. However, it’s harder to enforce these rules in farming compared to construction, as Wiegert noted.
Despite these measures, heat stress remains a serious concern.
The International Labour Organization (ILO) warns that even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, heat stress could cost the world $2.4 trillion by 2030. If we don’t act now to reduce climate change, the costs will rise sharply as temperatures continue to increase.
Published: 19th October 2024
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