Oil Prices Rise Due to Fears of Supply Problems as Israel-Iran Conflict Grows

Oil Prices Rise Due to Fears of Supply Problems as Israel-Iran Conflict Grows

Oil prices went up on Thursday after reports said that Israel had attacked nuclear sites in Iran. This news raised concerns about a bigger conflict in the Middle East, which could affect the world’s oil supply.

Oil Prices Rise

Brent crude oil prices went up by 2.8%, reaching $78.85 per barrel by 8:29 PM AST. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose slightly by 0.03% to $75.16 per barrel at 9:04 PM AST.

Trading was quiet because of the Juneteenth holiday in the US.

According to analyst Tony Sycamore from IG, oil prices include a “risk premium” as traders wait to see if the Israel-Iran tensions lead to a US military strike or peace talks.

Markets are watching closely for any problems in the Strait of Hormuz, an important waterway where about 20% of the world’s oil moves by sea.

Goldman Sachs said that a $10 risk premium is reasonable, as lower oil supply from Iran and possible bigger disruptions could push Brent prices above $90.

Iran, which is the third-biggest oil producer in OPEC, currently produces about 3.3 million barrels per day.

Priyanka Sachdeva from Phillip Nova said the market is nervous and waiting for clear signs about global oil supply and stability in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz, near Iran’s south coast, sees about 19 million barrels of oil and fuel pass through daily. Any problem there could seriously affect global trade.

Lower Oil Demand Expected

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global oil demand growth will slow down to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of the year. It was 990,000 barrels per day in the first quarter. The slowdown is due to economic issues and more electric vehicles being used.

OPEC kept its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 1.3 million barrels per day, as reported in its latest monthly update.

US Interest Rates

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% on Wednesday. However, it still expects to cut rates twice later this year. Lower interest rates usually help the economy grow, which can increase oil demand.

Published: 20th June 2025

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