Fitch Ratings Confirms UAE’s ‘AA-‘ Credit Rating With Stable Outlook, Expects 5.2% Economic Growth in 2025
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday confirmed that the UAE’s long-term foreign currency credit rating is ‘AA-’ and said the outlook for the country’s economy is stable.
UAE Credit Rating
Fitch Ratings has given the UAE a strong credit score because the country has low government debt, a large amount of foreign assets, and high income per person.
A big reason for this strong rating is the wealth of Abu Dhabi, which has some of the highest-rated foreign assets in the world.
However, Fitch also pointed out some weaknesses. These include weaker governance compared to other countries with similar ratings, heavy reliance on oil and gas income, and high debts from government-owned companies.
Fitch added that although tensions in the region are high, it believes any conflict between Iran, Israel, and the US will likely stay limited and short.
The ‘AA-’ rating applies to the UAE’s federal government.
Fitch’s Forecast for the UAE
Fitch expects that the UAE will break even on its budget if oil prices stay between $45 and $50 per barrel this year and next. This does not include money made from investments. The prediction is based on rising oil production and spending by government-owned companies.
The UAE is expected to have a budget surplus of 5.3% of GDP this year and 5.9% in 2026. Even though oil prices are expected to drop from $79.5 last year to $65 in 2025 and 2026, higher oil production in Abu Dhabi and smaller deficits in Sharjah will help balance things. Dubai is also expected to keep a budget surplus.
Government debt in the UAE was around 24.9% of GDP at the end of last year and is expected to rise slightly to 25.4% in 2025 and 2026.
What to Expect
Fitch expects the UAE’s economy to grow by 5.2% in 2025, mainly due to a 9% increase in oil production in Abu Dhabi. The non-oil economy is also expected to grow by more than 4%, despite global challenges.
Published: 25th June 2025
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